Eurizon’s view takes the name “The Globe”
Discussing the markets means not only stacking up numbers and charts, but also – and especially – understanding the world and facts.
Video recorded on 17th December 2024
January 2025: Eurizon’s positioning
Positive growth in the US continues, as also the moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The loosening of the monetary restriction implemented by the central banks to curb inflation also continues. Anticipation ahead of the opening of the mandate of the new US administration holds the potential to generate volatility on the markets, although the baseline scenario remains favourable. Watch the video “The Globe” to find out how we have decided to position ourselves.
Positioning for January 2025
“The Globe”, January 2025. Positive growth in the US continues, as also the moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The loosening of the monetary restriction implemented by the central banks to curb inflation also continues. Anticipation ahead of the opening of the mandate of the new US administration holds the potential to generate volatility on the markets, although the baseline scenario remains favourable. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for the opening of 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets department.
Audio recorded on 17 Dec. 2024.
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Positioning for December 2024
“The Globe”, December 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US with a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to hold back inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be in part priced in by the markets, and anticipation ahead of the new US administration’s mandate holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for December 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 28 Nov. 2024.
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Positioning for November 2024
“The Globe”, November 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US and a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to slow inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be partly priced in by the markets, and the outcome of the vote in the US holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for November 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at the AM company. Audio recorded on 30 Oct. 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024
The Globe, October 2024. The scenario combines stable growth in the United States with signs of a loosening of the labour market, and moderate growth in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing monetary restriction. The size of the slowdown in the United States and the run-up to the elections are sources of uncertainty. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024, with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets team. Audio recorded on 30 Sep. 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.
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June 2024: Eurizon’s positioning
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, with inflation close to the ECB’s target in the euro area, but still above the Fed’s target in the United States. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for June 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 30 May 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for May 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month ahead, in light of a baseline scenario that combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising and is close to target in the Eurozone, but still above target in the US. Impact of geopolitical themes modest.
Audio recorded on 30 Apr. 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for April 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact.
Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for March 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioning for February 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.
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Eurizon’s positioining for January 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.
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December 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets.
Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023
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November 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, considering a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the United States. The central banks have put their rate hike cycles on hold, but are set on keeping a restrictive stance in waiting for inflation to drop further. Modest impact on the markets of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2023.
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October 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizo’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team explains Eurizon’s positioning going forward, faced with a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with resilient economic activity to the monetary restriction, that leaves the central banks in no rush to announce the end of the rate hike cycle, although the restriction effectively seems to be on hold.
Audio recorded on 27 Sep. 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023 in consideration of a baseline scenario that combines falling inflation, albeit still above target, and resilient economic activity despite the monetary restriction, reason for which the central banks are in no hurry to declare the rate hike cycle as over.
Audio recorded on 27 July 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning for July 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning as we enter July 2023, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a sluggish decline of inflation with slowing but still positive economic growth. Resilient growth is prompting the central banks to keep up monetary restriction, that nonetheless seems to be approaching completion.
Watch the video to find out how we are positioned for July.
Audio recorded on 28 June 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning for June 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of June 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates.
Audio recorded on 30 May 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning for May 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of May 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Product Specialist Cecilia Barazzetta then takes a closer look at the Corporate Bond market.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning in April 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for April 2023, in light of the tensions that have emerged in the banking system, that could prompt less hawkish central bank stances.
Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2023.
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Eurizon’s positioning for March 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for March 2023, pointing out themes to watch and opportunities.
A closer look at the bond universe is then offered by Maria Luisa Matarrelli, Head of Developed and Emerging Government Bond and Forex.
Audio recorded on 23 Feb. 2023.
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February 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
The Globe: February 2023. With inflation on the decline again in December in the US and in the Eurozone, focus is increasingly on the macro slowdown. Data are adding credibility to the hypothesis of a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown of the economy (hard landing). Reacceleration of the Chinese economy confirmed, on the other hand. Find out how we are positioned for February.
Audio recorded on 30 Jan. 2023
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Eurizon’s positioning for the beginning of 2023
The Globe: Outlook for 2023. The new year should bring declining inflation and to a simultaneous slowdown in growth. Under the baseline scenario, the central banks are expected to complete their tightening cycles in the opening quarter of the year and then have a free hand in containing the slowdown of growth. As previously mentioned, in this context medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism could support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will in any case have to be validated by the resilience of the economic cycle.
Audio recorded on 20 Dec. 2022
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