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Markets, geopolitics, fiscal and monetary policy, our positioning and topical themes in the spotlight.
Listen to our experts’ analyses to navigate investment and the themes that will influence our future.
"The Globe” explains our monthly positioning and focuses on the asset classes in the limelight, while every Monday “Eurizon Weekly” offers a review of the past week’s market movers.
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The Globe
Positioning for February 2025
“The Globe”, February 2025. Positive growth continues in the US, as opposed to a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The main theme, and source of potential volatility, is the impact of the measures the new US administration is putting in place. The Fed is on hold, whereas the ECB should continue to cut rates. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for February 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis .Audio recorded on 28 Jan. 2025
05:18
05:18
Positioning for January 2025
“The Globe”, January 2025. Positive growth in the US continues, as also the moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The loosening of the monetary restriction implemented by the central banks to curb inflation also continues. Anticipation ahead of the opening of the mandate of the new US administration holds the potential to generate volatility on the markets, although the baseline scenario remains favourable. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for the opening of 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets department.
Audio recorded on 17 Dec. 2024.
05:43
05:43
Positioning for December 2024
“The Globe”, December 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US with a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to hold back inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be in part priced in by the markets, and anticipation ahead of the new US administration’s mandate holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for December 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 28 Nov. 2024.
05:04
05:04
Positioning for November 2024
“The Globe”, November 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US and a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to slow inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be partly priced in by the markets, and the outcome of the vote in the US holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for November 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at the AM company. Audio recorded on 30 Oct. 2024.
05:30
05:30
Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024
The Globe, October 2024. The scenario combines stable growth in the United States with signs of a loosening of the labour market, and moderate growth in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing monetary restriction. The size of the slowdown in the United States and the run-up to the elections are sources of uncertainty. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024, with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets team. Audio recorded on 30 Sep. 2024.
05:20
05:20
Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.
05:37
05:37
Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.
05:22
05:22
June 2024: Eurizon’s positioning
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, with inflation close to the ECB’s target in the euro area, but still above the Fed’s target in the United States. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for June 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 30 May 2024.
05:07
05:07
Eurizon’s positioning for May 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month ahead, in light of a baseline scenario that combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising and is close to target in the Eurozone, but still above target in the US. Impact of geopolitical themes modest.
Audio recorded on 30 Apr. 2024.
05:45
05:45
Eurizon’s positioning for April 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact.
Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.
05:38
05:38
Eurizon’s positioning for March 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.
05:31
05:31
Eurizon’s positioning for February 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.
05:01
05:01
Eurizon’s positioining for January 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.
05:13
05:13
December 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets.
Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023
05:19
05:19
November 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, considering a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the United States. The central banks have put their rate hike cycles on hold, but are set on keeping a restrictive stance in waiting for inflation to drop further. Modest impact on the markets of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2023.
05:13
05:13
October 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizo’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team explains Eurizon’s positioning going forward, faced with a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with resilient economic activity to the monetary restriction, that leaves the central banks in no rush to announce the end of the rate hike cycle, although the restriction effectively seems to be on hold.
Audio recorded on 27 Sep. 2023.
05:24
05:24
Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023 in consideration of a baseline scenario that combines falling inflation, albeit still above target, and resilient economic activity despite the monetary restriction, reason for which the central banks are in no hurry to declare the rate hike cycle as over.
Audio recorded on 27 July 2023.
05:28
05:28
Eurizon’s positioning for July 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning as we enter July 2023, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a sluggish decline of inflation with slowing but still positive economic growth. Resilient growth is prompting the central banks to keep up monetary restriction, that nonetheless seems to be approaching completion.
Watch the video to find out how we are positioned for July.
Audio recorded on 28 June 2023.
05:08
05:08
Eurizon’s positioning for June 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of June 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates.
Audio recorded on 30 May 2023.
05:24
05:24
Eurizon’s positioning for May 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of May 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Product Specialist Cecilia Barazzetta then takes a closer look at the Corporate Bond market.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2023.
05:09
05:09
Eurizon’s positioning in April 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for April 2023, in light of the tensions that have emerged in the banking system, that could prompt less hawkish central bank stances.
Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2023.
05:10
05:10
Eurizon’s positioning for March 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for March 2023, pointing out themes to watch and opportunities.
A closer look at the bond universe is then offered by Maria Luisa Matarrelli, Head of Developed and Emerging Government Bond and Forex.
Audio recorded on 23 Feb. 2023.
07:59
07:59
February 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
The Globe: February 2023. With inflation on the decline again in December in the US and in the Eurozone, focus is increasingly on the macro slowdown. Data are adding credibility to the hypothesis of a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown of the economy (hard landing). Reacceleration of the Chinese economy confirmed, on the other hand. Find out how we are positioned for February.
Audio recorded on 30 Jan. 2023
05:13
05:13
Eurizon’s positioning for the beginning of 2023
The Globe: Outlook for 2023. The new year should bring declining inflation and to a simultaneous slowdown in growth. Under the baseline scenario, the central banks are expected to complete their tightening cycles in the opening quarter of the year and then have a free hand in containing the slowdown of growth. As previously mentioned, in this context medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism could support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will in any case have to be validated by the resilience of the economic cycle.
Audio recorded on 20 Dec. 2022
05:27
05:27
Eurizon Weekly
Stock markets positive on macro data and geopolitics
Eurizon Weekly 17 Feb. 2025. The mix of still solid macro data, positive corporate earnings, and an improving geopolitical picture on the prospect of talks beginning to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, supported the markets: in the week, government bond yields were stable and stock indices rose back, with Europe still emerging as the top-performing market since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the macro picture seems to be supportive of ongoing growth, and data confirm that the US cycle is normalising, avoiding an excessive overheating for the time being. As regards monetary policy, the strengthening of inflation implies the Fed staying on hold, also in waiting for greater clarity on the Trump administration’s future policies. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 Feb. 2025
04:52
04:52
Markets cautious after US labour data
Eurizon Weekly 10 Feb. 2025. With the trade tariffs theme set to remain crucial for investors, caution prevailed among investors last week in the wake of US labour market data and quarterly earnings reports, that are confirmed solid albeit essentially in line with analyst expectations. This week’s inflation reading will provide clearer indications on the price dynamic in the United States, and therefore on the macro picture the Fed will consider in making its next decisions on rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 10 Feb. 2025
04:41
04:41
Markets positive, now facing the test of US trade tariffs
Eurizon Weekly, 3 Feb. 2025. Last week was a positive one overall: solid US macro data and the ability of technology sector companies to reassure investors with strong quarterly results, that helped reduce the volatility triggered by potential new developments on the low-cost AI front in China. The Fed and the ECB also lived up to expectations. However, focus is now on the new trade tariffs announced over the weekend by the Trump administration, and most importantly, on immigration control. On the macro front, with the US economy in good health, focus is back on the mix of labour market and inflation data, although the main source of volatility will be the United States’ trade policy. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 3 Feb. 2025.
04:56
04:56
Stock markets supported by Trump and US data
Eurizon Weekly, 27 Jan. 2025. Positive week for the global stock markets, that benefited from the less aggressive tones used by President Trump on trade tariffs, and from US macro data, that confirmed the solidity of the US economy. Caution ruled on the government bond market, with US and European rates at levels in line with the previous week’s. The dollar weakened. In waiting for the Fed’s decisions, focus remains on corporate earnings, in the technology sector in particular, grappling with the volatility triggered by Chinese competitors. Andrea Conti, Head of Market Macro Analysis at Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 27 Jan- 2025.
04:53
04:53
Markets positive in the wake of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 20 Jan. 2025. US inflation data, and core inflation in particular, restored confidence on the markets, that over the previous weeks had been pricing in concerns of an overheating of the US economy. In fact, in the course of the week, government bond yields dropped back down. The drop of yields, combined with the opening of the 4Q 2024 earnings season (with financial sector names reporting very solid results) boosted the stock markets. The future level of rates in light of the growth-inflation mix is still the markets’ main focus, as Trump takes office and officially begins his mandate as President. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Jan. 2025.
04:53
04:53
Yields up and stock markets down on US labour data
US labour market data, that confirmed the good state of health and resilience of the US economy were at the heart of market dynamics last week. This triggered profit-taking on the US stock markets and pushed up US government bond yields, that priced in the increased likeliness of the Fed slowing its interest rate cut cycle. The future path of US rates, in light of the growth-inflation mix, remains the markets’ main concern: anticipation is high ahead of the inflation reading this week. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Jan. 2025.
04:53
04:53
Positive start to the year for the stock markets
Eurizon Weekly, 7 Jan. 2025. In the opening week of 2025, the main themes at play in the final stages of last year were confirmed.
Investor focus is back on the central banks, as inflation slowed its downtrend and could be affected by the trade tariffs announced by Trump. In this context, government bond yields rose, albeit without compromising the bullish tone of the stock markets, supported by the macroeconomic picture and by expectations for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policy not to prove particularly aggressive. Audio recorded on 7 Jan. 2025.
05:15
05:15
Stock markets cautious ahead of the FOMC
Eurizon Weekly 16 Dec. 2024. The macro picture that is taking shape is outlining a certain divergence between the European Union and the United States. Investor focus is now on the next FOMC meeting, expected to provide indications on the next US monetary policy management moves. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 16 Dec. 2024.
05:06
05:06
Markets upbeat in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 9 Dec. 2024. Last week focus was back on macro dataIn the US yields dropped, with labour market data staying positive. In Europe, political uncertainty in France kept German rates stable at the previous week’s levels. However, the fall of the government and anticipation ahead of the appointment of a new prime minister have not generated excessive volatility. The stock markets also performed well in the week, with the S&P 500 index consolidating new all-time highs. Focus is now shift on central bank decisions over the next few weeks. The mix of growth and inflation expectations will be decisive in defining the timeline the two major central banks will follow in lowering rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 9 Dec. 2024
04:52
04:52
Stock markets up on confidence data
Eurizon Weekly 25 Nov. 2024. Last week US government bond yields were stable, pricing in a still positive macro picture, supported by services. In Europe yields priced in a weaker macro picture, tied to business confidence data. On the stock markets, the strength of the US economy on the one hand, and the weakening of the European on the other, had a positive impact. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 25 Nov. 2024.
05:08
05:08
US yields on the rise, with Trump and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 18 Nov. 2024. In the US, the mix of solid macro data and the first rumours on the new Republican administration’s appointments translated into higher US yields and into a further appreciation of the dollar. The global stock markets incurred profit-taking in the week across the board. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 18 Nov. 2024.
04:53
04:53
The US stock market celebrates with Trump
Eurizon Weekly 11 Nov. 2024. The key event of the week were the US elections. Trump’s victory met the expectations of most investors, although such a clear win was not entirely priced in. This translated into very strong gains on the US stock markets. Uncertainty over the actual evolution of the macro picture left European and US interest rate markets close to their previous levels. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 11 Nov. 2024.
05:26
05:26
Waiting on the vote in the US: rates up and stock markets cautious
Eurizon Weekly 28 Oct. 2024. Last week, the mix of macro data and of anticipation ahead of the presidential election in the US translated into an increase of government bond yields and some profit taking on the stock markets. The resilience of the US economy, combined with the outcome of the election and the geopolitical picture, are still in the market spotlight. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 28 Oct. 2024.
05:29
05:29
European rates down following the ECB
Eurizon Weekly, 21 Oct. 2024. The markets brought another cautious week to an end, gradually pricing in two distinct macro scenarios for the US and the Eurozone. In the US, in fact, macroeconomic data confirmed once again that the consumption trend is in good health, as also the economy as a whole. In Europe, on the other hand, the ECB implemented a 25bps rate cut, as expected, acknowledging that there may be the risk of a faster-than-expected macro slowdown. This translated into little-changed US yields as opposed to European rates on the decline, in waiting for macro data to provide clearer indications for the central banks to gauge the appropriate pace of rate reduction. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 21 Oct. 2024.
05:01
05:01
Markets cautions between US data and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly 14 Oct. 2024. Caution rued on the financial markets last week. In the US, labour market data and inflation once again confirmed the resilience of the US economy, and investors are now waiting for confirmative evidence on the macro front and from the central banks, starting with the ECB meeting on Thursday. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 14 Oct. 2024.
05:34
05:34
Markets volatile on geopolitics and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 7 Oct. 2024. Volatile week overall, due to the mix of macro data, on the recovery in the US, but weaker in Europe, and mounting geopolitical tensions in the middle East. In macroeconomic terms, the market is now pricing in slightly different rate-cut timelines in the US and Europe. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 07 Oct. 2024.
05:12
05:12
Stock markets up after the Fed. Focus now on macro data
Eurizon Weekly 23 Sep. 2024. Government bond rates were stable and the stock markets scored gains following the opening of the Fed’s rate reduction cycle (expected and priced in by the markets), with an initial 50 basis points cut. This marks a recalibration of monetary policy, that does not anticipate a sequence of equally sharp cuts, but takes stock of the decline of inflation. The next set of macro data on the labour market, growth, and inflation, will be decisive in determining the actual pace of rate cuts. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 23 Sep. 2024.
05:12
05:12
Stock markets recovering on the ECB, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly 16 Sep. 2024. Last week the ECB’s policy meeting confirmed market expectations, cutting rates by 25 basis points. In the US, headline inflation was in line with expectations, whereas the core component grew slightly more than expected in monthly terms. The interest rate market was stable overall, while stocks recovered well, after the previous week’s round of profit-taking. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Sep. 2024
05:08
05:08
Stock markets weak on US labour market and ahead of the ECB and Fed decisions
Eurizon Weekly 9 Sep. 2024. US labour market data came in weaker than expected, but showed that the normalisation phase continues. The data were consistent with soft landing scenario, but start to justify a monetary policy easing. The interest rate market reacted by staying on a downtrend. Profit-taking on the stock markets. Focus is now on the ECB and the Fed. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 9 Sep. 2024.
05:26
05:26
Markets positive on US inflation and quarterly earnings
Eurizon Weekly, 2 Sep. 2024. The markets recovered well after volatility had surged in the opening days of August, triggered by the mix of weaker than expected US labour market data, softer than expected quarterly corporate results, and the swift unwinding of financing positions in yens as a result of the Japanese central bank’s rate hike. Fed open to an initial rate cut in September. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 2 Sep. 2024.
06:33
06:33
Stock markets weak, caught between earnings and the US election
Eurizon Weekly 22 July 2024. The ECB’s policy meeting lived up to investor expectations and market focus is mostly on the earnings reporting season, and in particular on the potential impact of the new political scenario in the US may reap on corporate results as well as on the global growth outlook. The interest rate market reacted in orderly fashion. On the other hand, uncertainty tied to the future US political agenda and the global crash of many IT systems on Friday, generated volatility on the stock markets. The market still expects a gradual reduction of rates in both the US and in Europe, although investor focus is once again on the timing of the moves. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 22 July 2024.
04:58
04:58
Markets upbeat on US inflation and quarterly earnings
Eurizon Weekly 15.07.24. The much anticipated June inflation reading in the US surprised investor expectations last week in part by coming in weaker than forecast. The overall reduction of yields, and the possibility of the macro picture enabling the Fed to open the rate cut cycle, and the ECB to consolidate the accommodative policy already being implemented, was welcomed by the stock markets as well, although caution prevailed ahead of the opening of the quarterly earnings seasons. Investor focus is still mainly on macro data, although some political and geopolitical factors, such as the race for the US presidency, should also be closely monitored. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 July 2024.
05:57
05:57
Markets on the rise in waiting on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 08.07.24 The mix of events of a political nature and of macro data was at the heart of market dynamics. In Europe, the elections in France and in the United Kingdom captured the attention of the markets, whereas US macro data were once again decisive in outlining the macro scenario on which the Fed will make its future decisions. In the UK, the elections went as expected, with a landslide victory for Labour, called to relaunch the country’s economy. In France, on the other hand, the elections failed to assign an absolute parliamentary majority to any of the parties, therefore a government coalition will have to be formed.
This week, focus will be on the US inflation reading, due out on Thursday, after the release of European inflation data in the past few days. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 08 July 2024
05:03
05:03
Markets cautious, due to politics and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 24.06.24. Last week caution prevailed among investors, faced with a scenario marred by political uncertainty in France that is to some extent conditioning the markets in Europe, whereas in the US macro data are still proving rather solid. European spreads were stable, after rising on the political developments in France, and stayed effectively unchanged in the week. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 24 June 2024.
04:38
04:38
Europe rocked by the elections, US driven by the Fed and data
Eurizon Weekly 17 June 2024. Last week was rife with both macroeconomic and political events. In Europe, the outcome of the elections to renew the European Parliament, while leaving potential majorities shielded from major upheavals, had important repercussions at the national levels. Considerable turbulences emerged in Europe, reflected both by the stock lists, that suffered losses in the week, and by spreads. On the other hand, government bonds performed well in the week, also thanks to lower than expected inflation in the United States, with US indices scoring gains. Stefano Cucchi, of Euizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 17 June 2024
05:11
05:11
Stock markets positive on ECB and US payrolls
Eurizon Weekly, 7 June 2024. Last week, important political and economic events took place. In Europe, the much-anticipated ECB meeting on the one hand confirmed investor expectations by implementing an initial policy rate cut, while the new inflation forecasts prompted a partial postponement of expectations for the ensuing path of rate reductions. Also in Europe, the elections to renew the European Parliament were held over the weekend. Although the count isn’t over yet, the outcome leans towards a likely confirmation of the current parliamentary majority, as already indicated by voting intention polls. In the US, on the other hand, May data confirmed the labour market’s good state of health, easing potential pressures on the Fed to proceed with a swifter than estimated rate cut cycle. Expectations in this sense will be revised on Wednesday, in light of the May inflation reading. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 07 June 2024.
04:49
04:49
Markets weak waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 27 May 2024. Last week ended with weak stock indices overall and a recovery of sovereign yields on the mix of US macro data, quarterly earnings report, and central banks statements. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Laura Dalbosco offers insight on the latest set of advance PMIs. Audio recorded on 27 May 2024.
04:48
04:48
Markets upbeat on US inflation and consumption
Eurizon Weekly 20 May 2024. Last week investor focus was on US macro data, and in particular on the much-anticipated April inflation reading, that was in line with expectations, showing a slight decline. The stock markets benefited most, pricing in the resilience of the US economy, devoid of excessive accelerations, and a marginal stabilisation of the level of interest rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 May 2024.
04:44
04:44
Stock indices positive waiting on us inflation
Eurizon Weekly, 13 May 2024. The stock markets performed well in the course of last week, benefiting from the stabilisation of government bond yields and from the quarterly corporate earnings reports. The macro picture confirmed that the US economy, while still solid, is not heading for an overheating phase, whereas in Europe industrial output showed signs of weakness, fuelling investor expectations for the opening of the ECB’s rate cut cycle in June. Investor focus is now entirely on the US inflation reading, out on Wednesday, called to validate the soft-landing scenario priced in since the beginning of the year. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 May 2024.
05:18
05:18
Stock markets pushed back into positive territory by quarterly results
Eurizon Weekly 29.04.24 The stock market recovered supported by quarterly earnings reports as well as by a macro picture still benefiting from a solid consumption trend. The re-pricing of monetary policy expectations continues Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Laura Dalbosco, of the same team, reports on PMI indicators. Audio recorded on 29 April 2024.
05:21
05:21
Markets held back by rates and geopolitical tensions
Eurizon Weekly 22.04.24. The risk of a potential escalation in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, in the US in particular, translated into a rather volatile week on all the major markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2024.
05:46
05:46
US inflation and geopolitics holding back the markets
Eurizon Weekly, 15 Apr. 2024. US inflation rose and beat expectations on the upside for the third month in a row, and combined with the risk of the crisis in the Middle East spreading, with the direct involvement of Iran, fuelled uncertainty among investors. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 April 2024.
05:33
05:33
Markets held back by the strength of the US economy
Eurizon Weekly 8 April. 2024. In the course of the week, the mix of US macro data and statements made by Fed officials generated renewed uncertainty over the policy rate reduction path. This translated into a marginal rise of government bond yields, while the major stock indices consolidated at their previous levels. Focus will mostly stay on the US market and on the Fed. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 April, 2024.
04:40
04:40
The Fed reassures the markets
Eurizon Weekly 25 Mar. 2024. The much-anticipated FOMC meeting was last week’s main event. The US central bank Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, and raised both its growth and inflation forecasts. During the meeting, the Fed reasserted its intention to implement three rate cuts in 2024, thus confirming the announcement made in December and removing concerns of a potential reduction to two moves: the message was swiftly priced in by the stock markets, that performed well in the week. Bonds also performed well, on the shorter end of the curve in particular.
Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 25 Mar. 2024.
04:26
04:26
Caution in the wake of US inflation, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly 15 Mar. 2024. Last week, investor focus was on data on the evolution of prices in the US, the downtrend of which seems to have slowed. Market operator caution prevailed, waiting on the Fed meeting this week to provide greater details on its future monetary policy choices. Expectations for the start and the scope of the interest rate cut cycle are still the main determinant factor of volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 Mar. 2024.
04:56
04:56
Markets positive but cautious after the ECB and US labour data
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Mar. 2024. The markets enjoyed a positive week thanks to the ECB meeting, that confirmed investor expectations, and US labour market data, that while mixed overall, confirmed that the US economy is not overheating at the moment. However, while the markets scored gains, they generally remained rather cautious in waiting on the US inflation reading.
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports Audio recorded on 11 Mar. 2024.
05:21
05:21
Markets stable on macro data, inflation, and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly 4 Mar. 2024.Another positive week, with investors slightly more cautious, in light of the trend of US inflation and ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. The markets are pricing in on the one hand some uncertainty over the timeline of the convergence of inflation back to target, and on the other macro data that confirm the resilience of the overall picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 4 Mar. 2024
05:26
05:26
Markets held back by persistently high prices in the US
Eurizon Weekly 19Feb. 2024. In the course of the week, both consumer and producer prices rose back on a monthly basis in the US, casting some doubts on the timeline of inflation’s return to target and, as a result, on expectations for the Fed’s future decisions on the announced monetary easing process. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 Feb. 2024.
05:13
05:13
Markets cautious, waiting on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 12 Feb. 2024. The marginal repricing of monetary policy expectations by the sovereign yields market continued, progressively cutting back on the excesses recorded over the closing months of 2023. The global stock markets were cautious, whereas the US stock lists stayed on an uptrend, supported by quarterly corporate results, in waiting for the US inflation reading to provide clearer indications on the timing of the start of the interest rate normalisation process by the central banks. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 Feb. 2024.
05:03
05:03
Stock indices supported by the strong US economy
Eurizon Weekly 29 Jan. 2024. Last week the US economy again confirmed its strength, and combined with the growth-supportive measures put in place by the Chinese authorities and the ECB’s more accommodative than expected statements, boosted stock indices. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 Jan. 2024.
05:31
05:31
Stock markets cautious ahead of corporate earnings
Eurizon Weekly 22 Jan. 2024. Stock markets more cautious, on the decline of short-term US yields and ahead of the earnings season reaching its height. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Jan. 2024.
05:08
05:08
Markets recovering on US data
Eurizon Weekly 15 Jan. 2024. After a cautious start to the year, marked by widespread profit-taking following the sharp recovery scored at the end of 2023, last week investors started to take a bolder approach. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports.
Audio recorded on 15 Jan. 2024.
04:50
04:50
Markets weak at the beginning of the year
Eurizon Weekly, 8 Jan. 2024. In the opening week of 2024, the markets remained cautious in the wake of the strong recovery recorded in the final weeks of 2023. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 Jan. 2024.
05:30
05:30
Markets upbeat thanks to US inflation and the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 18 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the mix of US inflation, confirmed on a downtrend, and of the central bank meetings, with the spotlight on the Fed, essentially confirmed that further rate hikes are not on the cards, and in fact rate cuts in 2024 are starting to be considered. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look
Audio recorded on 18 Dec 2023
04:42
04:42
Europe better than the US in waiting on the Fed and inflation
Eurizon Weekly 11 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the European markets benefited from the accommodative tones on the future path of interest rates used by some ECB Governing Council members. In the US, spotlight back on the Fed’s next decisions and on forthcoming US inflation data. Stefano Cucchi of the Euruzone Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Dec. 2023.
04:52
04:52
Stock markets positive but cautious in waiting for confirmative macro data
Eurizon Weekly 27 Nov. 2023. After rising significantly over the previous weeks, in the wake of the Fed’s announcements and of the inflation reading, the markets consolidated at the levels achieved, in waiting for further confirmative evidence from forthcoming macroeconomic data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Nov. 2023
04:45
04:45
US inflation on the decline, markets up
Eurizon Weekly 20 Nov. 2023. The US inflation reading validated the Fed’ monetary policy. On the markets, government bond yields dropped, stock indices scored gains, and the BTP-Bund spread narrowed. Italy’s sovereign rating was confirmed by Moody’s at Baa3, with an upgrading of the Outlook from negative to stable. Market focus remains on central bank decisions and on the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Nov. 2023.
04:52
04:52
Markets slow ahead of US inflation data
Eurizon Weekly, 13 Nov. 2023. The fight against inflation is not yet officially over, and the central banks’ future choices are still dependent on the course of macroeconomic data. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Nov. 2023.
05:12
05:12
Markets positive with the Fed on hold
Eurizon Weekly 6 Nov. 2023. Last week the markets found support in the Fed meeting, that confirmed the hiatus in the rate hike cycle, and in a mix of data that reported a sharper decline of inflation than expected in Europe and a slowdown of the US labour market. In Europe, in addition to confirmation from the ECB last week of the pause in the rate hike cycle, the sharp drop of inflation led to a significant decline of yields on the longer end of the curve.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Nov. 2023.
04:57
04:57
Middle East crisis and US data still fuelling volatility
Eurizon Weekly 23.10.23. Markets focused on the situation in the Middle East and on macro data, that beat expectations by confirming the strength of the US economy, and cast doubts over the slowdown scenario. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 23 Oct. 2023.
05:08
05:08
Markets cautious with inflation and the Middle East at the fore
Eurizon Weekly, 16 Oct. 2023. The uncertain macro picture, with two wars under way near the borders of the European continent, is advising caution on the markets. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 16 Oct. 2023.
05:05
05:05
Markets volatile on US data and Middle East crisis. US labour market strong
Eurizon Weekly 09.10.23. In the course of last week, data on business confidence and the labour market confirmed the solidity of US growth, despite the sharp monetary restriction under way. The easing of the labour market is one of the main conditions the Fed needs to verify before reviewing its monetary policy in a less restrictive mode, together with a reduction of inflation. Therefore, focus is now on the inflation reading, due out on Thursday. Over the weekend the underlying scenario saw the addition of a new crisis in the Middle East. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 09.10.23
04:42
04:42
Markets volatile on Fed and oil
Eurizon Weekly . The outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting was at the heart of market dynamics: although the Fed lived up to expectations by leaving interest rates unchanged, at the same time it announced that a further hike could be necessary in 2023, depending on the trend of inflation, and confirmed its intention to consolidate the present level of fed funds rates for several months, in waiting for macro conditions to offer clearer evidence of a slowdown. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer.
Audio recorded on 25 Sep. 2023.
05:20
05:20
Stock markets cautious, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly, 18 Sep. 2023. . The spotlight is now on the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurzion’s Macro Research & Product team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 18 Sep. 2023.
05:07
05:07
Markets weak ahead of US inflation and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Sep. 2023. The mix of still solid macro data in the US, and consolidating oil prices at high levels translated into profit taking on the markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Sep. 2023.
04:46
04:46
Tepid August on the markets
Eurizon Weekly, 4 Sep 2023. August confirmed the cautious approach of investors to the markets, in waiting for a clearer turn of the macroeconomic picture. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 04 September 2023.
07:01
07:01
Markets cautious in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly . During the week, the government bond rate market saw yields initially drop following the release of UK inflation (lower than expected), only to rise back in the wake of the release of jobless claims data in the US, that told the story of a still very solid labour market. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 24 July 2023.
05:06
05:06
Markets on the recovery in the wake of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 17 Jul 23. Declining inflation and labour market conditions that are still distant from recessive dynamics helped restore a soft-landing baseline scenario for the US economy. Andrea Conti, Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 July 2023.
05:37
05:37
US data still strong. Yields down and stock markets up
Eurizon Weekly . the US economy is still strong and does not seem set to help ease price pressures any time soon, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep a hawkish stance. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 10 July 23.
04:50
04:50
Stock market held back by fears of a slowdown
Eurizon Weekly 26/06/23. Last week, government bond rates were confirmed at the same levels as in the previous week, whereas the stock markets incurred losses. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 26 June 2023.
04:47
04:47
Stock markets up on central banks and inflation
Eurizon Weekly 19 June 2023. Last week the US inflation and the Fed and ECB decisions were in line with expectations. Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 June 2023.
05:52
05:52
Stock markets stable in waiting on inflation and central banks
Eurizon Weekly 12 June 23. With a still solid economy, and core inflation pulling back more slowly than expected, the Fed is called to confirm the hiatus in the rate hike cycle it had previously announced, whereas the ECB should confirm the rate hike path as it had outlined, with no further accelerations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 June 2023.
06:02
06:02
Rates up on US inflation and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. US growth, and therefore the evolution of prices, are back at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 May 2023.
04:54
04:54
Stock markets and yields driven up by US data
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. Last week, US macro data were confirmed rather solid once again, denying, at least for the time being, an overly negative outlook for growth. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 May 2023
05:00
05:00
Markets cautious in light of the slowdown and of inflation
Eurizon Weekly 15 May 2023. In the course of the week the markets remained cautious in waiting to verify the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 May 2023.
05:13
05:13
Stock markets stable on central banks and US employment
Eurizon Weekly 8 May 2023. The Fed and the ECB convey the message that if on the one hand they will keep fighting inflation, on the other they do not intend to underestimate the effects of the strong monetary restriction on the real economy.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 May 2023.
04:45
04:45
Markets cautious in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 24 Apr. 2023. Investor focus is on central bank decisions, expected in the first week of May, as the macroeconomic slowdown seems to be well managed in the different regions of the world, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 24 Apr. 2023.
04:42
04:42
Stock markets up on inflation and US data
Eurizon Weekly 17 Apr. 2023. Last week yields rose slightly, the stock markets performed positively and the dollar weakened against the euro. Macro data in the USA were confirmed at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 17 Apr. 2023.
05:04
05:04
Markets cautious ahead of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Apr. 2023. This week the markets stabilised in the wake of macro data releases in the US. central bank decisions, called to balance the fight against inflation with the macro slowdown, are again the main focus of investment decisions. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 11 April 2023
04:53
04:53
Markets positive but cautious following the FOMC and tensions on banks
Eurizon Weekly 27 Mar. 2023. Main themes of the week: banking sector solidity, latest Fed decisions and macro data. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Mar. 2023
04:13
04:13
Impact on the markets of banking sector tensions
Eurizon Weekly, 20 mar. 2023.
Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, analyses the impact on the financial markets of the tensions affecting the banking system, explaining where they stem from, their different aspects, and pointing out the forthcoming data to watch.
Audio recorded on 20 Mar. 2023
05:40
05:40
Yields and stocks down on the collapse of SVB
Eurizon Weekly 13 Mar. 2023. The hardships faced by US bank SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) in completing an important capital increase to cover losses on securities, triggered by massive deposit withdrawal requests, took the markets by surprise, sparking a major risk-off movement, with a sharp decline of stock indices and government bond rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Mar. 2023
05:04
05:04
Yields up and stock markets strong on macro data
Eurizon Weekly 6 Mar. 2023. Yields rose further in the week, in the wake of still solid macro data, stronger than expected inflation in Europe, and still resilient stock markets. Return to growth in China. Investor focus is still on the growth-inflation mix, although anticipation is high ahead of US labour market data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 6 Mar. 2023
04:55
04:55
Rates still on the rise, stock markets holding out
Eurizon Weekly, 20 Feb. 2023. Last week government yields rose again in the wake of the messages sent by the Fed and the ECB, and of the release of the producer price index, that grew much more than expected. Andrea Conti, Head of the #Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 Feb. 2023
05:29
05:29
Stock markets held back by rising yields
Eurizon Weekly 13 Feb. 2023. Last week yields rose across the board, pricing in a stronger than expected labour market, and therefore the possibility of the Fed being forced to keep hiking rates, when it seemed close to a hiatus. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Feb. 2023
04:47
04:47
Central banks and US data drive stock market performances
Eurizon Weekly 6 Feb. 2023.
In a busy week in terms of economic events, the ECB and Fed meetings lived up to market expectations, while US macro data surprised sharply. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Feb. 2023
04:25
04:25
Macro slowdown fears holding back the markets
Eurizon Weekly 23 Jan. 2023. Markets cautious in waiting to verify the actual intentions of the central banks in light of slowing macro data and the sluggish decline of inflation.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 23 Jan. 2023
05:06
05:06
Stocks up on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 16 Jan. 2023.
In the course of the week, government yields were confirmed at the previous week’s levels, and the stock markets stayed on the uptrend observed at the beginning of the year, also thanks to the US inflation reading, that confirmed expectations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Jan. 2023
05:12
05:12
Yields down and stock markets up ahead of US inflation
In the week, yields dropped on the long end of the European curve in particular, spreads were stable, and stock indices recovered. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 9 Jan. 2023
05:20
05:20
Listen to previous episodes
Stock markets positive on macro data and geopolitics
Eurizon Weekly 17 Feb. 2025. The mix of still solid macro data, positive corporate earnings, and an improving geopolitical picture on the prospect of talks beginning to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, supported the markets: in the week, government bond yields were stable and stock indices rose back, with Europe still emerging as the top-performing market since the beginning of the year. Therefore, the macro picture seems to be supportive of ongoing growth, and data confirm that the US cycle is normalising, avoiding an excessive overheating for the time being. As regards monetary policy, the strengthening of inflation implies the Fed staying on hold, also in waiting for greater clarity on the Trump administration’s future policies. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 Feb. 2025
04:52
04:52
Markets cautious after US labour data
Eurizon Weekly 10 Feb. 2025. With the trade tariffs theme set to remain crucial for investors, caution prevailed among investors last week in the wake of US labour market data and quarterly earnings reports, that are confirmed solid albeit essentially in line with analyst expectations. This week’s inflation reading will provide clearer indications on the price dynamic in the United States, and therefore on the macro picture the Fed will consider in making its next decisions on rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 10 Feb. 2025
04:41
04:41
Markets positive, now facing the test of US trade tariffs
Eurizon Weekly, 3 Feb. 2025. Last week was a positive one overall: solid US macro data and the ability of technology sector companies to reassure investors with strong quarterly results, that helped reduce the volatility triggered by potential new developments on the low-cost AI front in China. The Fed and the ECB also lived up to expectations. However, focus is now on the new trade tariffs announced over the weekend by the Trump administration, and most importantly, on immigration control. On the macro front, with the US economy in good health, focus is back on the mix of labour market and inflation data, although the main source of volatility will be the United States’ trade policy. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 3 Feb. 2025.
04:56
04:56
Positioning for February 2025
“The Globe”, February 2025. Positive growth continues in the US, as opposed to a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The main theme, and source of potential volatility, is the impact of the measures the new US administration is putting in place. The Fed is on hold, whereas the ECB should continue to cut rates. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for February 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets Analysis .Audio recorded on 28 Jan. 2025
05:18
05:18
Stock markets supported by Trump and US data
Eurizon Weekly, 27 Jan. 2025. Positive week for the global stock markets, that benefited from the less aggressive tones used by President Trump on trade tariffs, and from US macro data, that confirmed the solidity of the US economy. Caution ruled on the government bond market, with US and European rates at levels in line with the previous week’s. The dollar weakened. In waiting for the Fed’s decisions, focus remains on corporate earnings, in the technology sector in particular, grappling with the volatility triggered by Chinese competitors. Andrea Conti, Head of Market Macro Analysis at Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 27 Jan- 2025.
04:53
04:53
Markets positive in the wake of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 20 Jan. 2025. US inflation data, and core inflation in particular, restored confidence on the markets, that over the previous weeks had been pricing in concerns of an overheating of the US economy. In fact, in the course of the week, government bond yields dropped back down. The drop of yields, combined with the opening of the 4Q 2024 earnings season (with financial sector names reporting very solid results) boosted the stock markets. The future level of rates in light of the growth-inflation mix is still the markets’ main focus, as Trump takes office and officially begins his mandate as President. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Jan. 2025.
04:53
04:53
Yields up and stock markets down on US labour data
US labour market data, that confirmed the good state of health and resilience of the US economy were at the heart of market dynamics last week. This triggered profit-taking on the US stock markets and pushed up US government bond yields, that priced in the increased likeliness of the Fed slowing its interest rate cut cycle. The future path of US rates, in light of the growth-inflation mix, remains the markets’ main concern: anticipation is high ahead of the inflation reading this week. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Jan. 2025.
04:53
04:53
Positive start to the year for the stock markets
Eurizon Weekly, 7 Jan. 2025. In the opening week of 2025, the main themes at play in the final stages of last year were confirmed.
Investor focus is back on the central banks, as inflation slowed its downtrend and could be affected by the trade tariffs announced by Trump. In this context, government bond yields rose, albeit without compromising the bullish tone of the stock markets, supported by the macroeconomic picture and by expectations for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policy not to prove particularly aggressive. Audio recorded on 7 Jan. 2025.
05:15
05:15
Positioning for January 2025
“The Globe”, January 2025. Positive growth in the US continues, as also the moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The loosening of the monetary restriction implemented by the central banks to curb inflation also continues. Anticipation ahead of the opening of the mandate of the new US administration holds the potential to generate volatility on the markets, although the baseline scenario remains favourable. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for the opening of 2025 with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets department.
Audio recorded on 17 Dec. 2024.
05:43
05:43
Stock markets cautious ahead of the FOMC
Eurizon Weekly 16 Dec. 2024. The macro picture that is taking shape is outlining a certain divergence between the European Union and the United States. Investor focus is now on the next FOMC meeting, expected to provide indications on the next US monetary policy management moves. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team.
Audio recorded on 16 Dec. 2024.
05:06
05:06
Markets upbeat in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 9 Dec. 2024. Last week focus was back on macro dataIn the US yields dropped, with labour market data staying positive. In Europe, political uncertainty in France kept German rates stable at the previous week’s levels. However, the fall of the government and anticipation ahead of the appointment of a new prime minister have not generated excessive volatility. The stock markets also performed well in the week, with the S&P 500 index consolidating new all-time highs. Focus is now shift on central bank decisions over the next few weeks. The mix of growth and inflation expectations will be decisive in defining the timeline the two major central banks will follow in lowering rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 9 Dec. 2024
04:52
04:52
Positioning for December 2024
“The Globe”, December 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US with a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to hold back inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be in part priced in by the markets, and anticipation ahead of the new US administration’s mandate holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Find out how Eurizon is positioned for December 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon. Audio recorded on 28 Nov. 2024.
05:04
05:04
Stock markets up on confidence data
Eurizon Weekly 25 Nov. 2024. Last week US government bond yields were stable, pricing in a still positive macro picture, supported by services. In Europe yields priced in a weaker macro picture, tied to business confidence data. On the stock markets, the strength of the US economy on the one hand, and the weakening of the European on the other, had a positive impact. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 25 Nov. 2024.
05:08
05:08
US yields on the rise, with Trump and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 18 Nov. 2024. In the US, the mix of solid macro data and the first rumours on the new Republican administration’s appointments translated into higher US yields and into a further appreciation of the dollar. The global stock markets incurred profit-taking in the week across the board. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 18 Nov. 2024.
04:53
04:53
The US stock market celebrates with Trump
Eurizon Weekly 11 Nov. 2024. The key event of the week were the US elections. Trump’s victory met the expectations of most investors, although such a clear win was not entirely priced in. This translated into very strong gains on the US stock markets. Uncertainty over the actual evolution of the macro picture left European and US interest rate markets close to their previous levels. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 11 Nov. 2024.
05:26
05:26
Positioning for November 2024
“The Globe”, November 2024. The baseline scenario combines positive growth in the US and a moderate expansion in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing the monetary restriction put in place to slow inflation. The virtuous scenario seems to be partly priced in by the markets, and the outcome of the vote in the US holds the potential to generate temporary volatility on the markets. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for November 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at the AM company. Audio recorded on 30 Oct. 2024.
05:30
05:30
Waiting on the vote in the US: rates up and stock markets cautious
Eurizon Weekly 28 Oct. 2024. Last week, the mix of macro data and of anticipation ahead of the presidential election in the US translated into an increase of government bond yields and some profit taking on the stock markets. The resilience of the US economy, combined with the outcome of the election and the geopolitical picture, are still in the market spotlight. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 28 Oct. 2024.
05:29
05:29
European rates down following the ECB
Eurizon Weekly, 21 Oct. 2024. The markets brought another cautious week to an end, gradually pricing in two distinct macro scenarios for the US and the Eurozone. In the US, in fact, macroeconomic data confirmed once again that the consumption trend is in good health, as also the economy as a whole. In Europe, on the other hand, the ECB implemented a 25bps rate cut, as expected, acknowledging that there may be the risk of a faster-than-expected macro slowdown. This translated into little-changed US yields as opposed to European rates on the decline, in waiting for macro data to provide clearer indications for the central banks to gauge the appropriate pace of rate reduction. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 21 Oct. 2024.
05:01
05:01
Markets cautions between US data and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly 14 Oct. 2024. Caution rued on the financial markets last week. In the US, labour market data and inflation once again confirmed the resilience of the US economy, and investors are now waiting for confirmative evidence on the macro front and from the central banks, starting with the ECB meeting on Thursday. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 14 Oct. 2024.
05:34
05:34
Markets volatile on geopolitics and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 7 Oct. 2024. Volatile week overall, due to the mix of macro data, on the recovery in the US, but weaker in Europe, and mounting geopolitical tensions in the middle East. In macroeconomic terms, the market is now pricing in slightly different rate-cut timelines in the US and Europe. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 07 Oct. 2024.
05:12
05:12
Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024
The Globe, October 2024. The scenario combines stable growth in the United States with signs of a loosening of the labour market, and moderate growth in the Eurozone. The central banks are removing monetary restriction. The size of the slowdown in the United States and the run-up to the elections are sources of uncertainty. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for October 2024, with Andrea Conti, Head of the AM company’s Macro Markets team. Audio recorded on 30 Sep. 2024.
05:20
05:20
Stock markets up after the Fed. Focus now on macro data
Eurizon Weekly 23 Sep. 2024. Government bond rates were stable and the stock markets scored gains following the opening of the Fed’s rate reduction cycle (expected and priced in by the markets), with an initial 50 basis points cut. This marks a recalibration of monetary policy, that does not anticipate a sequence of equally sharp cuts, but takes stock of the decline of inflation. The next set of macro data on the labour market, growth, and inflation, will be decisive in determining the actual pace of rate cuts. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 23 Sep. 2024.
05:12
05:12
Stock markets recovering on the ECB, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly 16 Sep. 2024. Last week the ECB’s policy meeting confirmed market expectations, cutting rates by 25 basis points. In the US, headline inflation was in line with expectations, whereas the core component grew slightly more than expected in monthly terms. The interest rate market was stable overall, while stocks recovered well, after the previous week’s round of profit-taking. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Sep. 2024
05:08
05:08
Stock markets weak on US labour market and ahead of the ECB and Fed decisions
Eurizon Weekly 9 Sep. 2024. US labour market data came in weaker than expected, but showed that the normalisation phase continues. The data were consistent with soft landing scenario, but start to justify a monetary policy easing. The interest rate market reacted by staying on a downtrend. Profit-taking on the stock markets. Focus is now on the ECB and the Fed. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 9 Sep. 2024.
05:26
05:26
Markets positive on US inflation and quarterly earnings
Eurizon Weekly, 2 Sep. 2024. The markets recovered well after volatility had surged in the opening days of August, triggered by the mix of weaker than expected US labour market data, softer than expected quarterly corporate results, and the swift unwinding of financing positions in yens as a result of the Japanese central bank’s rate hike. Fed open to an initial rate cut in September. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 2 Sep. 2024.
06:33
06:33
Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, where inflation is close to target and should prompt the ECB to cut rates further in the autumn. Inflation has resumed declining in the United States, and expectations are now for an initial Fed rate cut in September. Also in the US, increasing focus on the presidential election could generate volatility on the markets, that are already stretched. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for August 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 24 July 2024.
05:37
05:37
Stock markets weak, caught between earnings and the US election
Eurizon Weekly 22 July 2024. The ECB’s policy meeting lived up to investor expectations and market focus is mostly on the earnings reporting season, and in particular on the potential impact of the new political scenario in the US may reap on corporate results as well as on the global growth outlook. The interest rate market reacted in orderly fashion. On the other hand, uncertainty tied to the future US political agenda and the global crash of many IT systems on Friday, generated volatility on the stock markets. The market still expects a gradual reduction of rates in both the US and in Europe, although investor focus is once again on the timing of the moves. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 22 July 2024.
04:58
04:58
Markets upbeat on US inflation and quarterly earnings
Eurizon Weekly 15.07.24. The much anticipated June inflation reading in the US surprised investor expectations last week in part by coming in weaker than forecast. The overall reduction of yields, and the possibility of the macro picture enabling the Fed to open the rate cut cycle, and the ECB to consolidate the accommodative policy already being implemented, was welcomed by the stock markets as well, although caution prevailed ahead of the opening of the quarterly earnings seasons. Investor focus is still mainly on macro data, although some political and geopolitical factors, such as the race for the US presidency, should also be closely monitored. Andrea Conti, Head of Macro Markets at Eurizon, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 July 2024.
05:57
05:57
Markets on the rise in waiting on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 08.07.24 The mix of events of a political nature and of macro data was at the heart of market dynamics. In Europe, the elections in France and in the United Kingdom captured the attention of the markets, whereas US macro data were once again decisive in outlining the macro scenario on which the Fed will make its future decisions. In the UK, the elections went as expected, with a landslide victory for Labour, called to relaunch the country’s economy. In France, on the other hand, the elections failed to assign an absolute parliamentary majority to any of the parties, therefore a government coalition will have to be formed.
This week, focus will be on the US inflation reading, due out on Thursday, after the release of European inflation data in the past few days. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 08 July 2024
05:03
05:03
Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US with a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising at close to the ECB’s target rate, but in the United States is still above the Fed’s target. The French elections are a source of temporary volatility. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for July 2024 with Andrea Conti, Eurizon’s Head of Macro Markets. Audio recorded on 2 July 2024.
05:22
05:22
Markets cautious, due to politics and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 24.06.24. Last week caution prevailed among investors, faced with a scenario marred by political uncertainty in France that is to some extent conditioning the markets in Europe, whereas in the US macro data are still proving rather solid. European spreads were stable, after rising on the political developments in France, and stayed effectively unchanged in the week. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Audio recorded on 24 June 2024.
04:38
04:38
Europe rocked by the elections, US driven by the Fed and data
Eurizon Weekly 17 June 2024. Last week was rife with both macroeconomic and political events. In Europe, the outcome of the elections to renew the European Parliament, while leaving potential majorities shielded from major upheavals, had important repercussions at the national levels. Considerable turbulences emerged in Europe, reflected both by the stock lists, that suffered losses in the week, and by spreads. On the other hand, government bonds performed well in the week, also thanks to lower than expected inflation in the United States, with US indices scoring gains. Stefano Cucchi, of Euizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports. Audio recorded on 17 June 2024
05:11
05:11
Stock markets positive on ECB and US payrolls
Eurizon Weekly, 7 June 2024. Last week, important political and economic events took place. In Europe, the much-anticipated ECB meeting on the one hand confirmed investor expectations by implementing an initial policy rate cut, while the new inflation forecasts prompted a partial postponement of expectations for the ensuing path of rate reductions. Also in Europe, the elections to renew the European Parliament were held over the weekend. Although the count isn’t over yet, the outcome leans towards a likely confirmation of the current parliamentary majority, as already indicated by voting intention polls. In the US, on the other hand, May data confirmed the labour market’s good state of health, easing potential pressures on the Fed to proceed with a swifter than estimated rate cut cycle. Expectations in this sense will be revised on Wednesday, in light of the May inflation reading. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 07 June 2024.
04:49
04:49
June 2024: Eurizon’s positioning
The baseline scenario combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone, with inflation close to the ECB’s target in the euro area, but still above the Fed’s target in the United States. Discover Eurizon’s positioning for June 2024 with Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team. Audio recorded on 30 May 2024.
05:07
05:07
Markets weak waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 27 May 2024. Last week ended with weak stock indices overall and a recovery of sovereign yields on the mix of US macro data, quarterly earnings report, and central banks statements. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team reports. Laura Dalbosco offers insight on the latest set of advance PMIs. Audio recorded on 27 May 2024.
04:48
04:48
Markets upbeat on US inflation and consumption
Eurizon Weekly 20 May 2024. Last week investor focus was on US macro data, and in particular on the much-anticipated April inflation reading, that was in line with expectations, showing a slight decline. The stock markets benefited most, pricing in the resilience of the US economy, devoid of excessive accelerations, and a marginal stabilisation of the level of interest rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 May 2024.
04:44
04:44
Stock indices positive waiting on us inflation
Eurizon Weekly, 13 May 2024. The stock markets performed well in the course of last week, benefiting from the stabilisation of government bond yields and from the quarterly corporate earnings reports. The macro picture confirmed that the US economy, while still solid, is not heading for an overheating phase, whereas in Europe industrial output showed signs of weakness, fuelling investor expectations for the opening of the ECB’s rate cut cycle in June. Investor focus is now entirely on the US inflation reading, out on Wednesday, called to validate the soft-landing scenario priced in since the beginning of the year. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 May 2024.
05:18
05:18
Eurizon’s positioning for May 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month ahead, in light of a baseline scenario that combines stable growth in the US and a gradual reacceleration in the Eurozone. Inflation seems to be stabilising and is close to target in the Eurozone, but still above target in the US. Impact of geopolitical themes modest.
Audio recorded on 30 Apr. 2024.
05:45
05:45
Stock markets pushed back into positive territory by quarterly results
Eurizon Weekly 29.04.24 The stock market recovered supported by quarterly earnings reports as well as by a macro picture still benefiting from a solid consumption trend. The re-pricing of monetary policy expectations continues Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Laura Dalbosco, of the same team, reports on PMI indicators. Audio recorded on 29 April 2024.
05:21
05:21
Markets held back by rates and geopolitical tensions
Eurizon Weekly 22.04.24. The risk of a potential escalation in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over the future path of interest rates, in the US in particular, translated into a rather volatile week on all the major markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Apr. 2024.
05:46
05:46
US inflation and geopolitics holding back the markets
Eurizon Weekly, 15 Apr. 2024. US inflation rose and beat expectations on the upside for the third month in a row, and combined with the risk of the crisis in the Middle East spreading, with the direct involvement of Iran, fuelled uncertainty among investors. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 April 2024.
05:33
05:33
Markets held back by the strength of the US economy
Eurizon Weekly 8 April. 2024. In the course of the week, the mix of US macro data and statements made by Fed officials generated renewed uncertainty over the policy rate reduction path. This translated into a marginal rise of government bond yields, while the major stock indices consolidated at their previous levels. Focus will mostly stay on the US market and on the Fed. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 April, 2024.
04:40
04:40
Eurizon’s positioning for April 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a slower downtrend of inflation compared to the second half of 2023, stable growth in the US, and signals of the slowdown in the Eurozone coming to an end. The central banks have declared they intend to cut policy rates, but not before mid-year. Geopolitical themes are having a modest impact.
Audio recorded on 28 March 2024.
05:38
05:38
The Fed reassures the markets
Eurizon Weekly 25 Mar. 2024. The much-anticipated FOMC meeting was last week’s main event. The US central bank Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, and raised both its growth and inflation forecasts. During the meeting, the Fed reasserted its intention to implement three rate cuts in 2024, thus confirming the announcement made in December and removing concerns of a potential reduction to two moves: the message was swiftly priced in by the stock markets, that performed well in the week. Bonds also performed well, on the shorter end of the curve in particular.
Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 25 Mar. 2024.
04:26
04:26
Caution in the wake of US inflation, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly 15 Mar. 2024. Last week, investor focus was on data on the evolution of prices in the US, the downtrend of which seems to have slowed. Market operator caution prevailed, waiting on the Fed meeting this week to provide greater details on its future monetary policy choices. Expectations for the start and the scope of the interest rate cut cycle are still the main determinant factor of volatility on the markets. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 Mar. 2024.
04:56
04:56
Markets positive but cautious after the ECB and US labour data
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Mar. 2024. The markets enjoyed a positive week thanks to the ECB meeting, that confirmed investor expectations, and US labour market data, that while mixed overall, confirmed that the US economy is not overheating at the moment. However, while the markets scored gains, they generally remained rather cautious in waiting on the US inflation reading.
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports Audio recorded on 11 Mar. 2024.
05:21
05:21
Markets stable on macro data, inflation, and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly 4 Mar. 2024.Another positive week, with investors slightly more cautious, in light of the trend of US inflation and ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. The markets are pricing in on the one hand some uncertainty over the timeline of the convergence of inflation back to target, and on the other macro data that confirm the resilience of the overall picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 4 Mar. 2024
05:26
05:26
Eurizon’s positioning for March 2024
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the coming month, in light of a baseline scenario that combines inflation converging towards the central banks’ targets and expectations for the global economic cycle to continue. The Fed and ECB still intend to lower policy rates in the second half of the year, and the market impact of geopolitical tensions remains modest. Audio recorded on 22 Feb. 2024.
05:31
05:31
Markets held back by persistently high prices in the US
Eurizon Weekly 19Feb. 2024. In the course of the week, both consumer and producer prices rose back on a monthly basis in the US, casting some doubts on the timeline of inflation’s return to target and, as a result, on expectations for the Fed’s future decisions on the announced monetary easing process. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 Feb. 2024.
05:13
05:13
Markets cautious, waiting on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 12 Feb. 2024. The marginal repricing of monetary policy expectations by the sovereign yields market continued, progressively cutting back on the excesses recorded over the closing months of 2023. The global stock markets were cautious, whereas the US stock lists stayed on an uptrend, supported by quarterly corporate results, in waiting for the US inflation reading to provide clearer indications on the timing of the start of the interest rate normalisation process by the central banks. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 Feb. 2024.
05:03
05:03
Eurizon’s positioning for February 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with expectations for an ongoing global economic cycle. The Fed and the ECB intend to lower rates in the second half of the year. Geopolitical tensions are only reaping modest impacts on the markets. Audio recorded on 01 Feb. 2024.
05:01
05:01
Stock indices supported by the strong US economy
Eurizon Weekly 29 Jan. 2024. Last week the US economy again confirmed its strength, and combined with the growth-supportive measures put in place by the Chinese authorities and the ECB’s more accommodative than expected statements, boosted stock indices. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 Jan. 2024.
05:31
05:31
Stock markets cautious ahead of corporate earnings
Eurizon Weekly 22 Jan. 2024. Stock markets more cautious, on the decline of short-term US yields and ahead of the earnings season reaching its height. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 Jan. 2024.
05:08
05:08
Markets recovering on US data
Eurizon Weekly 15 Jan. 2024. After a cautious start to the year, marked by widespread profit-taking following the sharp recovery scored at the end of 2023, last week investors started to take a bolder approach. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, reports.
Audio recorded on 15 Jan. 2024.
04:50
04:50
Markets weak at the beginning of the year
Eurizon Weekly, 8 Jan. 2024. In the opening week of 2024, the markets remained cautious in the wake of the strong recovery recorded in the final weeks of 2023. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 Jan. 2024.
05:30
05:30
Eurizon’s positioining for January 2024
baseline scenario that combines inflation on the decline to target, and slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have completed their hike cycles and could cut rates could cut them in 2024 once the downtrend of inflation has consolidated. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are reaping a modest macro and market impact. Audio recorded on 19 Dec. 2023.
05:13
05:13
Markets upbeat thanks to US inflation and the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 18 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the mix of US inflation, confirmed on a downtrend, and of the central bank meetings, with the spotlight on the Fed, essentially confirmed that further rate hikes are not on the cards, and in fact rate cuts in 2024 are starting to be considered. Stefano Cucchi, of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look
Audio recorded on 18 Dec 2023
04:42
04:42
Europe better than the US in waiting on the Fed and inflation
Eurizon Weekly 11 Dec. 2023. In the course of the week, the European markets benefited from the accommodative tones on the future path of interest rates used by some ECB Governing Council members. In the US, spotlight back on the Fed’s next decisions and on forthcoming US inflation data. Stefano Cucchi of the Euruzone Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Dec. 2023.
04:52
04:52
December 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, with a baseline scenario that combines inflation closing in on central bank targets with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the US. The central banks have put the rate hike cycle on hold and are leaning towards keeping rates in restrictive territory in order to consolidate the decline of inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in Ukraine are having modest impacts at both the macro level and on the markets.
Audio recorded on 29 Nov. 2023
05:19
05:19
Stock markets positive but cautious in waiting for confirmative macro data
Eurizon Weekly 27 Nov. 2023. After rising significantly over the previous weeks, in the wake of the Fed’s announcements and of the inflation reading, the markets consolidated at the levels achieved, in waiting for further confirmative evidence from forthcoming macroeconomic data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Nov. 2023
04:45
04:45
US inflation on the decline, markets up
Eurizon Weekly 20 Nov. 2023. The US inflation reading validated the Fed’ monetary policy. On the markets, government bond yields dropped, stock indices scored gains, and the BTP-Bund spread narrowed. Italy’s sovereign rating was confirmed by Moody’s at Baa3, with an upgrading of the Outlook from negative to stable. Market focus remains on central bank decisions and on the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 20 Nov. 2023.
04:52
04:52
Markets slow ahead of US inflation data
Eurizon Weekly, 13 Nov. 2023. The fight against inflation is not yet officially over, and the central banks’ future choices are still dependent on the course of macroeconomic data. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 13 Nov. 2023.
05:12
05:12
Markets positive with the Fed on hold
Eurizon Weekly 6 Nov. 2023. Last week the markets found support in the Fed meeting, that confirmed the hiatus in the rate hike cycle, and in a mix of data that reported a sharper decline of inflation than expected in Europe and a slowdown of the US labour market. In Europe, in addition to confirmation from the ECB last week of the pause in the rate hike cycle, the sharp drop of inflation led to a significant decline of yields on the longer end of the curve.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Nov. 2023.
04:57
04:57
November 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning going forward, considering a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with slowing economic activity in the Eurozone, but not in the United States. The central banks have put their rate hike cycles on hold, but are set on keeping a restrictive stance in waiting for inflation to drop further. Modest impact on the markets of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Audio recorded on 26 Oct. 2023.
05:13
05:13
Middle East crisis and US data still fuelling volatility
Eurizon Weekly 23.10.23. Markets focused on the situation in the Middle East and on macro data, that beat expectations by confirming the strength of the US economy, and cast doubts over the slowdown scenario. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 23 Oct. 2023.
05:08
05:08
Markets cautious with inflation and the Middle East at the fore
Eurizon Weekly, 16 Oct. 2023. The uncertain macro picture, with two wars under way near the borders of the European continent, is advising caution on the markets. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 16 Oct. 2023.
05:05
05:05
Markets volatile on US data and Middle East crisis. US labour market strong
Eurizon Weekly 09.10.23. In the course of last week, data on business confidence and the labour market confirmed the solidity of US growth, despite the sharp monetary restriction under way. The easing of the labour market is one of the main conditions the Fed needs to verify before reviewing its monetary policy in a less restrictive mode, together with a reduction of inflation. Therefore, focus is now on the inflation reading, due out on Thursday. Over the weekend the underlying scenario saw the addition of a new crisis in the Middle East. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 09.10.23
04:42
04:42
October 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizo’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team explains Eurizon’s positioning going forward, faced with a scenario that combines declining inflation – but still above target – with resilient economic activity to the monetary restriction, that leaves the central banks in no rush to announce the end of the rate hike cycle, although the restriction effectively seems to be on hold.
Audio recorded on 27 Sep. 2023.
05:24
05:24
Markets volatile on Fed and oil
Eurizon Weekly . The outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting was at the heart of market dynamics: although the Fed lived up to expectations by leaving interest rates unchanged, at the same time it announced that a further hike could be necessary in 2023, depending on the trend of inflation, and confirmed its intention to consolidate the present level of fed funds rates for several months, in waiting for macro conditions to offer clearer evidence of a slowdown. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer.
Audio recorded on 25 Sep. 2023.
05:20
05:20
Stock markets cautious, waiting on the Fed
Eurizon Weekly, 18 Sep. 2023. . The spotlight is now on the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurzion’s Macro Research & Product team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 18 Sep. 2023.
05:07
05:07
Markets weak ahead of US inflation and the ECB
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Sep. 2023. The mix of still solid macro data in the US, and consolidating oil prices at high levels translated into profit taking on the markets. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 11 Sep. 2023.
04:46
04:46
Tepid August on the markets
Eurizon Weekly, 4 Sep 2023. August confirmed the cautious approach of investors to the markets, in waiting for a clearer turn of the macroeconomic picture. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 04 September 2023.
07:01
07:01
Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains Eurizon’s positioning for August 2023 in consideration of a baseline scenario that combines falling inflation, albeit still above target, and resilient economic activity despite the monetary restriction, reason for which the central banks are in no hurry to declare the rate hike cycle as over.
Audio recorded on 27 July 2023.
05:28
05:28
Markets cautious in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly . During the week, the government bond rate market saw yields initially drop following the release of UK inflation (lower than expected), only to rise back in the wake of the release of jobless claims data in the US, that told the story of a still very solid labour market. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 24 July 2023.
05:06
05:06
Markets on the recovery in the wake of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 17 Jul 23. Declining inflation and labour market conditions that are still distant from recessive dynamics helped restore a soft-landing baseline scenario for the US economy. Andrea Conti, Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 17 July 2023.
05:37
05:37
US data still strong. Yields down and stock markets up
Eurizon Weekly . the US economy is still strong and does not seem set to help ease price pressures any time soon, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep a hawkish stance. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 10 July 23.
04:50
04:50
Eurizon’s positioning for July 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning as we enter July 2023, in light of a baseline scenario that combines a sluggish decline of inflation with slowing but still positive economic growth. Resilient growth is prompting the central banks to keep up monetary restriction, that nonetheless seems to be approaching completion.
Watch the video to find out how we are positioned for July.
Audio recorded on 28 June 2023.
05:08
05:08
Stock market held back by fears of a slowdown
Eurizon Weekly 26/06/23. Last week, government bond rates were confirmed at the same levels as in the previous week, whereas the stock markets incurred losses. Stefano Cucchi, of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 26 June 2023.
04:47
04:47
Stock markets up on central banks and inflation
Eurizon Weekly 19 June 2023. Last week the US inflation and the Fed and ECB decisions were in line with expectations. Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 19 June 2023.
05:52
05:52
Stock markets stable in waiting on inflation and central banks
Eurizon Weekly 12 June 23. With a still solid economy, and core inflation pulling back more slowly than expected, the Fed is called to confirm the hiatus in the rate hike cycle it had previously announced, whereas the ECB should confirm the rate hike path as it had outlined, with no further accelerations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 12 June 2023.
06:02
06:02
Eurizon’s positioning for June 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of June 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates.
Audio recorded on 30 May 2023.
05:24
05:24
Rates up on US inflation and macro data
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. US growth, and therefore the evolution of prices, are back at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team Eurizon takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 29 May 2023.
04:54
04:54
Stock markets and yields driven up by US data
Eurizon Weekly 22 May 2023. Last week, US macro data were confirmed rather solid once again, denying, at least for the time being, an overly negative outlook for growth. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 22 May 2023
05:00
05:00
Markets cautious in light of the slowdown and of inflation
Eurizon Weekly 15 May 2023. In the course of the week the markets remained cautious in waiting to verify the evolution of the macro picture. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 15 May 2023.
05:13
05:13
Stock markets stable on central banks and US employment
Eurizon Weekly 8 May 2023. The Fed and the ECB convey the message that if on the one hand they will keep fighting inflation, on the other they do not intend to underestimate the effects of the strong monetary restriction on the real economy.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 8 May 2023.
04:45
04:45
Eurizon’s positioning for May 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for the month of May 2023, in view of a baseline scenario that points to slowing economic growth and declining inflation, albeit still higher than central bank target rates. Product Specialist Cecilia Barazzetta then takes a closer look at the Corporate Bond market.
Audio recorded on 28 Apr. 2023.
05:09
05:09
Markets cautious in waiting on the central banks
Eurizon Weekly 24 Apr. 2023. Investor focus is on central bank decisions, expected in the first week of May, as the macroeconomic slowdown seems to be well managed in the different regions of the world, while inflation remains stubbornly high. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 24 Apr. 2023.
04:42
04:42
Stock markets up on inflation and US data
Eurizon Weekly 17 Apr. 2023. Last week yields rose slightly, the stock markets performed positively and the dollar weakened against the euro. Macro data in the USA were confirmed at the heart of market dynamics. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 17 Apr. 2023.
05:04
05:04
Markets cautious ahead of US inflation
Eurizon Weekly, 11 Apr. 2023. This week the markets stabilised in the wake of macro data releases in the US. central bank decisions, called to balance the fight against inflation with the macro slowdown, are again the main focus of investment decisions. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 11 April 2023
04:53
04:53
Eurizon’s positioning in April 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for April 2023, in light of the tensions that have emerged in the banking system, that could prompt less hawkish central bank stances.
Audio recorded on 30 Mar. 2023.
05:10
05:10
Markets positive but cautious following the FOMC and tensions on banks
Eurizon Weekly 27 Mar. 2023. Main themes of the week: banking sector solidity, latest Fed decisions and macro data. Stefano Cucchi of the Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 27 Mar. 2023
04:13
04:13
Impact on the markets of banking sector tensions
Eurizon Weekly, 20 mar. 2023.
Andrea Conti, head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, analyses the impact on the financial markets of the tensions affecting the banking system, explaining where they stem from, their different aspects, and pointing out the forthcoming data to watch.
Audio recorded on 20 Mar. 2023
05:40
05:40
Yields and stocks down on the collapse of SVB
Eurizon Weekly 13 Mar. 2023. The hardships faced by US bank SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) in completing an important capital increase to cover losses on securities, triggered by massive deposit withdrawal requests, took the markets by surprise, sparking a major risk-off movement, with a sharp decline of stock indices and government bond rates. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Mar. 2023
05:04
05:04
Yields up and stock markets strong on macro data
Eurizon Weekly 6 Mar. 2023. Yields rose further in the week, in the wake of still solid macro data, stronger than expected inflation in Europe, and still resilient stock markets. Return to growth in China. Investor focus is still on the growth-inflation mix, although anticipation is high ahead of US labour market data. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 6 Mar. 2023
04:55
04:55
Eurizon’s positioning for March 2023
Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, explains the AM company’s positioning for March 2023, pointing out themes to watch and opportunities.
A closer look at the bond universe is then offered by Maria Luisa Matarrelli, Head of Developed and Emerging Government Bond and Forex.
Audio recorded on 23 Feb. 2023.
07:59
07:59
Rates still on the rise, stock markets holding out
Eurizon Weekly, 20 Feb. 2023. Last week government yields rose again in the wake of the messages sent by the Fed and the ECB, and of the release of the producer price index, that grew much more than expected. Andrea Conti, Head of the #Eurizon Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 20 Feb. 2023
05:29
05:29
Stock markets held back by rising yields
Eurizon Weekly 13 Feb. 2023. Last week yields rose across the board, pricing in a stronger than expected labour market, and therefore the possibility of the Fed being forced to keep hiking rates, when it seemed close to a hiatus. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 13 Feb. 2023
04:47
04:47
Central banks and US data drive stock market performances
Eurizon Weekly 6 Feb. 2023.
In a busy week in terms of economic events, the ECB and Fed meetings lived up to market expectations, while US macro data surprised sharply. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 6 Feb. 2023
04:25
04:25
February 2023: Eurizon’s positioning
The Globe: February 2023. With inflation on the decline again in December in the US and in the Eurozone, focus is increasingly on the macro slowdown. Data are adding credibility to the hypothesis of a soft landing, rather than a sharp slowdown of the economy (hard landing). Reacceleration of the Chinese economy confirmed, on the other hand. Find out how we are positioned for February.
Audio recorded on 30 Jan. 2023
05:13
05:13
Macro slowdown fears holding back the markets
Eurizon Weekly 23 Jan. 2023. Markets cautious in waiting to verify the actual intentions of the central banks in light of slowing macro data and the sluggish decline of inflation.
Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 23 Jan. 2023
05:06
05:06
Stocks up on US inflation
Eurizon Weekly 16 Jan. 2023.
In the course of the week, government yields were confirmed at the previous week’s levels, and the stock markets stayed on the uptrend observed at the beginning of the year, also thanks to the US inflation reading, that confirmed expectations. Stefano Cucchi of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team takes a closer look. Audio recorded on 16 Jan. 2023
05:12
05:12
Yields down and stock markets up ahead of US inflation
In the week, yields dropped on the long end of the European curve in particular, spreads were stable, and stock indices recovered. Andrea Conti, Head of Eurizon’s Macro Research & Product Specialist team, takes a closer look.
Audio recorded on 9 Jan. 2023
05:20
05:20
Eurizon’s positioning for the beginning of 2023
The Globe: Outlook for 2023. The new year should bring declining inflation and to a simultaneous slowdown in growth. Under the baseline scenario, the central banks are expected to complete their tightening cycles in the opening quarter of the year and then have a free hand in containing the slowdown of growth. As previously mentioned, in this context medium and long-term rates should stabilise, if not drop back. Easing pessimism could support stocks in the immediate term, but the recovery will in any case have to be validated by the resilience of the economic cycle.
Audio recorded on 20 Dec. 2022
05:27
05:27
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